Friday, October 7, 2011

Why I Still Have £10,000 To Invest


This Fool wants to be ready for even greater bargains.
Have you been trying to second-guess this market? If so, give yourself a break. Take a lie down. You need it. These markets are enough to drive any sane observer crazy.
When you've recovered, find something better to do with your time. Nobody knows where these markets are going next. As I write, miners are sharply up in the hope that the Bank of England will shortly announce further bond buying and the European Central Bank will slash interest rates.
By the time you read this, both decisions will be in, and markets and miners might be doing something else. Traders will be paying attention to every movement. Fools won't.

Great mining disaster

By now it is received Foolish wisdom that these markets are a great buying opportunity for investors who are willing to stand by their decisions for the next five, ten or twenty years.
But these markets are also a short-term nightmare. It is easy to invest one day only to find you could have bought the stock 5% or 10% cheaper the next.
I am down on every single stock I have bought in the last twelve months, which I have to confess is a bit dispiriting. I'm feeling very ham-fisted right now, especially when I look at my misguided play on the mismatch between the gold price and gold company shares, in buying Vatukoula Gold Mines (LSE: VGM), now down 40%.
My recent stake in Junior Oils Trust has suffered similar levels of depletion, thanks to the shaky oil price. It all seemed s-o-o-o clever at the time.
Although my discount purchases of BHP Billiton (LSE: BLT), Lloyds Banking (LSE: LLOY) and Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS) have suffered relatively minor dips, I could do with a morale booster right now.

My last ten grand

With the FTSE 100 fiddling around the 5000 mark, I'm torn. I'm down to my last £10,000. This is the remains of a wedge of cash I have set aside for my pension. Once it has gone, I won't be investing much for the next few years (I have a mortgage to clear, kids to raise…), so I want to use it wisely.
I wouldn't do anything as rash or un-Foolish as trying to time the bottom of the market. That has only ever brought me grief. And I've had enough of 'playing' anything, whether it's gold, commodities, miners, oil or banks.
The case for topping up my holdings in a solid blue-chip such as Tesco (LSE: TSCO) now looks compelling, and even if that takes a short-term hit, I'll be suffering in good company.
Blue-chip Reckitt Benckiser (LSE: RB) and its list of global consumer brands makes it a tempting target. J Sainsbury (LSE: SBRYis a straightforward buy. Plus there are plenty ofhousehold names on P/Es of 5.
That little lot should keep me busy.

No guns blazing

I have two nightmares in this market. The first, as I've written before, is that I miss out on the next bull market run. This is where the FTSE 100 hits 6000, 7000, 8000… and I awake in a cold sweat because I was too scared to buy at 5000.
Here's my second nightmare. The FTSE 100 takes a tonk to 4000 or even lower, and I miss out on the best buying opportunity since March 2009 because I invested my last tranche of cash at 5000.
My arsenal would then be empty, and my ammunition spent. Far-sighted Fools would be picking off bargains at will, while I'd be firing blanks. They kept some powder dry, I didn't.

In with a bullet

There is a fair chance we could suffer a massive global fire sale. Eurozone leaders have repeatedly failed to rise to the crisis, and could easily fail to do so again.
Single-currency worries have blinded us to the fact that the US is still $14.3 trillion in debt and that China is a bubble waiting to burst. We may not have seen the ultimate buying opportunity just yet.
There are some amazing bargains out there right now. I plan to bag a few of them during the next few weeks. But I'm also going to keep a few bullets in reserve, just in case.

0 comments:

Post a Comment

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...
Twitter Delicious Facebook Digg Stumbleupon Favorites More